In the period August – October 2008 the national rate of unemployment was 10.8%.

This year to the same period it is 11.8%.

The global financial crisis produced its effects in the Colombian economy especially in the deterioration of the main sources of employment like industry and commerce.

When economic is reduced, the numbers in unemployment grow naturally. In Latin America, unemployment was 7.5 percent in 2008, while it grew to 9 percent during the first four months of this year.

The International Labor Organization (ILO) prepared a report for 2008 where it predicted that unemployment will grow in 8.3 percent as annual average. The numbers are different to 2008, when economic was doing well in Latin America and growing was estimated in 4.6 percent. Then, unemployment was reduced to 7.5 percent (in 2007 it was 8.1 percent.)

Then, according to ILO, it is estimated that about 2.4 million of workers will lost their jobs in Latin America in 2009.

Trying to reduce the effects of the financial crisis in regions like Latin Am. the International Monetary Fund has tripled its lending capacity in 750 thousand million US dollars.

the primary beneficiaries have been so far Colombia ($10 400 mil.), Mexico ($47 000 mil) and Poland ($20 500 mil.)

“We industrialists have the purpose not to cut personnel, but trying to keep the people at place as much as possible. So far in our group we have not fire a single person”, said the Colombian business magnate Luis Carlos Sarmiento Angulo.

The Mexican industrialist Olegario Vásquez Araña said that even if the company has a reduction in revenues, they are going to keep employees in order to guarantee at least their food.

The policy of the Latin American business magnates is to give opportunities to the young people in a time of global recession and it would be the way to face its consequences. The proposal is of great importance, because unemployment is very often the reason of political and social instability in Latin America. At the other side, unemployment would open the doors to the growing of illegal business like drug trafficking.

Please invest in Latin America, said Uribe

The meeting, that became an important event for the region, was also assisted by president Álvaro Uribe who asked the richest men of the Western Hemisphere in Cartagena to invest in Colombia as a way to avoid the consequences of a global recession.

Uribe underlined that investment with social responsibility is the best way of prosperity and social cohesion. At the same time, more investment means a less effect of the financial crisis because it will help to keep employment up, said the president. He talked about labor fraternity to promote investment.

Colombia will not come into recession, said Wall Street

According to financial analysts of Wall Street, it is possible that the Colombian economy will not fall into recession as it is predicted by others. The Colombian economist Alberto Bernal of the Bulltick Capital Markets, declared that Colombia will have a grow of 2 percent this year in its economy.

Bernal explained that Colombia learn from its 1999 crisis and for this reason it did not move its interbank rate with the international assets and there were not speculations for example during the fall of Lehman Brothers.

The scholar of the economy spoke during a financial forum organized by Grupo Bancolombia and he said that Banco de la República will continue its base rate of interest that he predicted in 5.5 percent by the end of this year. He said also that the Dollar will be 2,200 pesos this year.

However, the effects of the crisis will come to Colombia by Venezuela, said Daniel Niño Tarazona, manager of financial research of Bancolombia. Colombia is one of the main financial partners of Caracas and then, with the crisis, that country will reduce imports from the coffee nation and will have a strong currency devaluation.

The financial crisis became a priority for the new president of US, Barack Obama. He has recognized the severity of the economic crisis. Recently he said that the banks were the direct responsable for the crisis. As his strategy, he chose individuals who would bring continuity to economic policies and reassure the markets, according to his statements. By his part, the former president of Cuba, Fidel Castro, said to this: "Even if Kant, Plato and Aristotle come to life again at once together with the brilliant economist late John Kenneth Galbraight, they will not be able to resolve the antagonist contradictions, every moment more frecuent and deep." Art by Haro.

By Albeiro Rodas | Art by Haro

Asia | ColPass. While many stand to wait a magician act from new US president Obama to resolve the most irresponsible financial crisis of the modern times, political leaders look for solutions in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland in the annual World Economic Forum that will end tomorrow. There have been tips that should be taken seriously, like to state a global cooperation and fiscal and monetary policy measures to stabilize the economical crush.

Four of the leaders at Davos-Klosters, among them president Felipe Calderon of Mexico, called for a world coordinated action on a number of fronts. The other leaders were British premier Gordon Brown, South African premier Kgalema Motlanthe and South Korean premier Han Seung-Soo.

There is no other way: the financial crisis is global, therefore, the solutions should be global. Things would not be resolved just by United States, even if the financial Tsunami began over there.

For German Chancellor Angela Merkel, “the central task of politicians now is to restore the ability of markets to function, thereby creating a new trust, on a sounder footing.” Merkel called on a new set of rules and overhaul of the global financial system and the adoption of a post-crisis charter for a global economic order.

Crisis are also opportunities: the opportunity to do things better. Globalization joined the world in an unprecedented way during the last decades. on globalization is settled also the bases of this global crisis. On globalization must be settled the solutions. The world is already a village: the crisis taught us.

Both presidents were prudent in their answers, different to former reactions, for example in the issue of the Farc release after Uribe canceled the mediation of Chávez in November 2007. In that time Chávez broke any diplomacy and called Uribe “a poppet of the Empire” (USA).

Relations became even worse when the Colombian army bombed the camp of Raul Reyes, the international spokesman of Farc guerrillas. The camp was located at the south of the Putumayo River that is on Ecuadorian territory. In that time, Chávez supported the denounces of Quito arguing a violation of the Ecuadorian sovereignty. Chávez even treated to move troops to the border with Colombia with the order to open war if the case of Ecuador was going to be repeat on Venezuelan soil.

A regional currency

The dream of a regional currency is not new. But Chávez made it actual.

Uribe said to this regard that is it also the will of the Colombians in the course of economical integration. “It is a goal for all of us”, said president Uribe. He said also that it would be a good measure in time of crisis. About this, the ministries of finance of both countries are studying this possibility, thinking also in trials in different commercial sectors like energy.

Colombia sells to Venezuela 200 million cubic feet of gas per day and about 70 thousand kilowatts of energy. By its part, Venezuela sells to Colombia a great quantity of oil by La Guajira and North Santander states. President Uribe said that they could start to use their own currencies in those sectors as a begining.

Chávez, by his part, said that the study would be presented in a meeting in Caracas to be hold in April and added that it is already an exigence of the financial global crisis.

Obama: To those who cling to power…

Curiously, if US plays an important role in the distance among Uribe and Chávez, the recent speech of inauguration of president Obama, joined them.

Although it is not clear that Obama was thinking in Uribe – one of the strongest allies of Bush – and Chávez – his more international opponent -, his words “To those who cling to power…” were understood by some sources to the intention of both presidents for a new reelection.

The issue was touched in the press conference. A journalist asked: “Recently, a president said that it is not good to remain in power, to cling…”

Uribe answered that it is necessary to study the context and subject of the words of Obama. According to Uribe, the US presidents was referring to the clinging of terrorism and not to decisions of democracy. Uribe said also that Colombians respect and pay homage to the democracy of the Venezuelans.

Chávez gathered the idea of Uribe and said that both countries live in a democracy and that it is good that happens in both nations. The reelection is not a decision of the current president, but the decision of the people, said Chávez.

Ecuador, Piedad Córdoba and Farc

The other subjects that faced both presidents months ago, received very prudential answers.

To the question if Senator Piedad Córdoba has made any contact with him, Chávez said that she is a good friend, but it is a long time that he does not know about her.

He said also that he has not information about the possible release of the Farc hostages and that he waits any order from the Colombian government to help in the peace process.

To the question of the broken diplomatic relations among Colombia and Ecuador, president Chávez quoted the same words of president Uribe: prudence and hopes to reestablish the peace in the region.

“I am also a Colombian”, Chávez

The conference finished with an unusual cordiality among the two presidents. Chávez with his usual words of familiarity out of any strict scheme of diplomacy: He made references to Castro, to the gifts received from the hands of Uribe and to other subjects. He was like visiting a cousin at home. In a moment, praising the host country, he said that he was born at the south of Venezuela. He grew among Venezuelans and Colombians. He knew the Arauca river: “I learned that at the other side of the riever, was Colombia, in the documents of Miranda, in the vibrant and alive documents of Bolívar, Nariño and all of them.“, said Chávez with an air of poetry that reminds us that we are in South America, the land of Gabriel García Márquez, Jorge Luis Borges and Vargas Llosa.

At the end, he said that he feels also a Colombian. Words that a more calculator politician like Uribe, but not more diplomatic than Chávez, could only answer with a smile and a Gracias presidente.

Colombia and Venezuela have shared a long history and strong commercial links. Therefore, two things would join the two twin countries: the first will be the new role of US in their regard under the government of Obama, a president that has to choose between Chávez and Uribe and what they represent. The other thing that will make them more united is the financial crisis. The fact is already demonstrated in this meeting of the two most known presidents of the Western Hemisphere. Hopefully, both peoples would benefit of the friendship of their leaders.

Uribe and Chávez has been involved in long discussion throughout their long governments, Both of them have also a high popularity in their countries. While Uribe is seem always is a representative of the right win and liberal economy and the strongest ally of the former US government, Hugo Chávez has led a socialist campaign in the Hemisphere supporting socialist governments like Ecuador, Bolivia, Nicaragua and Cuba.

The discussion over the Farc guerrillas has been also the main spot of discussion between the two South American leaders.

But this time they are not going to talk about politics and Farc. In this opportunity they are going to face another common enemy: the global economical recession that is already affecting the two economies.

Colombia is one of the biggest markets of South America and Venezuela is the first American producer of oil.

Uribe and Chávez want to join in the idea of cushion the effects of the recession and avoid a deterioration in the national economies.

Colombia and Venezuela have also one of the most active commercial interchange of the continent, that has not been reduced even in the most deep debates among both presidents.

Colombia, a middle producer of oil, began in 2005 to look for more areas of exploitation with the intention to rise its oil production. According to Portafolio.com.co the daily production reached the 650,000 barrels per day.

The rising of numbers in production began in March 2008 when it reached 563,000 barrels per day that meant an increase of 8.47 percent more than in 2007. By consequence, it rose also the foreign investment in the Colombian oil production and made the country an attractive in this sector. According with National Hydrocarbons Agency of Colombia, the foreign investment in the oil and energetic sector was of USD 3,500 million in 2007.

These good numbers, however, mean nothing in a time of crisis where the prizes go down. Last Monday, according to the same economical magazine, the prize closed in USD 37,78 per barrel in the middle of a over supplied market and the global recession. But the production would become, anyway, a shield for the national economy, although it is early to say how will be the consequences of the recession.

Tax accounts will be deteriorated in most of the countries due to the slow of growing, the fall in the incomes of raw material and the increase in the costs of financing.

The global crisis will finish to weaken the Latin American currencies and slow its economics. In this way, the economical organization predicted that the GDP for Latin America in 2009 will be the half of what it was in 2008 stated in 4.8%. Therefore, the 2009 GDP could reach only 2.1%, according to the experts.

It said also that the most vulnerable countries to the prize of commodities will be Argentina and Venezuela, two countries that have implemented economical policies that have demotivated the foreign investment in the past years. Panama and Peru will have the highest growing in 2009.

The following is a list of numbers in what will be the GND for the biggest Latin American economies for 2009 according to Standard & Poor’s (S&P):

1. Mexico: It will have a reduction in its GND of 0,5%.
2. Brazil will grow 2,5%.
3. Argentina: 2,5%.
4. Chile: 2%.
5. Colombia: 3%.
6. Venezuela: 3,3%.
7. Perú: 6%.
8. Panamá: 5,5%,.

In the case of United States, Mexicans are going back home, after many of them have been stop to work due to the recession. It causes a big problem in Mexico where the levels of violence are high this time due to the war among the government and the mafias. If the numbers of unemployment are high, where to locate the “American” Mexicans that return back home?

In Europe is happening the same, of course. Countries that use to attract many migrants from regions like Africa, Arab countries and Latin America, are stopping many people from work. The situation affect production and quality in the developed country. Many nations of Latin America, for example, have a big share on their GDP from what migrants send to their families in the country, for example El Salvador, Colombia and Ecuador. The reduction of their migrants in the European countries, will mean the reduction in their GDP in the following months.

There is not work now in rich countries, is what we can say now to those who intend to look for the American Dream in this time.

The most notorious case for Colombians is in Spain, the second country to receive more Colombians, after United States, who look for best opportunities of employment. According to Alvaro Zuleta, the director of the Social-Cultural Association and Cooperation for the Development of Colombia and Iberian-America in an interview to the Colombian newspaper El Tiempo, many Colombians in Spain will return to their country in 2009 due to the financial crisis. He mentioned some cases he received in his office in Madrid. For example, Dairon Bedoya, a Paisa of 31 years old who is sleeping in the streets of Madrid and eating in a soup kitchen because the company in which he was working, went into bankrupt. He mentioned the case of a lawyer that came to Spain to realize his professional dreams and ended as a workmen in a brick factory.

For Zuleta, a man who listen the dramas of the Latin American migrants in Spain, they come to the country with the ideal of conquer the world, but most of them end conquered by the circumstances. Not only the economical crisis, but also the strong anti-migrant laws in Europe, will affect the Colombian adventure in the old continent.

According to the statistics of Zuleta, there are 299,500 legal Colombians in Spain and 500 thousand in illegal conditions. Most Colombians are women among 25 and 35, law level of education, who work as service employee.

According to the Minister of Economy of Spain, the migrants will be the most affected by the world financial crisis in 2009. Sectors like services and construction are falling, and they are the ones that contract more migrants for countries like Colombia and Ecuador.

The Spaniard government created a plan of return to migrants: they will give a compensation for the lost of employment of 40% in Spain and 60% in Colombia if the migrant wants to return. Those who return, can not come back in a term of three years.