Latin America could grow more than 4.1 percent this year, said Alicia Barcenas, executive secretary of United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (UNECLAC) in a report of AmericaEconomia last weekend over the World Economic Forum in Cartagena de Indias.

Barcena said that it can be predicted thanks to the good results of Mexico and the maintenance of good fiscal and monetary stimuli.

UNECLAC underlined that there is a positive increase in the price of  raw material and good numbers for the first three months of the year in the region, especially in countries like Mexico, considered one of the biggest Latin American economies. In 2009 the region contracted 1.9 percent due to the global financial crisis.

Brazil is the other key of optimism for UNECLAC, because it is predicted a growing of 5.5 percent this year, while Mexico will grow 4 percent, most better than what was established last December, said Bárcenas.  What she is worried is about the sustainability. The earthquakes of Haiti and Chile were the main negative impacts, she said.

Colombia

AmericaEconomia, the Latin American Magazine on economics from Chile, published also a report on financial projections over the Colombian growing for 2010.

According to the Magazine, the Colombian economy has good predictions this year and it will grow faster than what it was expected, according to projections of the Colombian Central Bank.

The Central Bank manifested that during the last three months of 2009 the country showed a positive growing thanks to the recuperation of United States. It added that the growing of China and India will mean an increase in the prices of the basic Colombian goods.

The indications of the financial activities for January and February 2010, especially in retail sales and energy demand, give as a result of a faster recovery, more than what was expected.

Inflation is not a worry for the Central Bank, manifested AmericaEconomia in its report. The Bank insisted that inflation was kept in Colombia under control and there is not risk of a bigger inflation in the months to come.

It seems that Latin America recovered at least its optimism. Let us see now which new president will guarantee the Colombian growing and how it must distributed to reduce poverty.

Photo: Puracé Volcano, near Popayán, from wikimedia.

Where will be the next? Are we prepared for a calamity like it? This is the question that countries like Colombia should answer and be ready, because we, as Chile, live at the edge of the Nazca and South America plates.

Earthquakes like the Haitian and Chilean, make us to study the natural phenomena very well. With the pass of days we forget the subject – less in the countries that suffered the consequences – but the plates continue their permanent and imperceptible movement one against the other until they broke in a disaster.

We Colombians are very proud of our strategic position at the crossroad of the Western Hemisphere. We are the only South American country with coasts in both oceans. We are the more northern land of the sub-continent and the place where the natural Central American geological bridge connects to the North American region.

But we are also at the center of four geological factors: Nazca, Pacific, Caribbean and South American plates. It makes us more than a very strategic site for international congresses, a spot susceptible of hecatombs worst than the Concepción´s earthquake!

The fact should not be published to create panic of course. We are obliged to study it very well in order to prevent tragedies. The same for countries like Peru and Ecuador, our southern neighbors that share with us the eternal kiss of the Nazca plate on our sunny beaches of the Pacific.

We have to know for example that Bogotá is 2,600 meters above the sea level thanks to the Nazca plate. It is possible that over the next million years our capital will continue its slow and millimeter growing to the sky, because the plate is moving into our South American soil at a velocity of 3.7 centimeters per year. If our aboriginal ancestors called the Andes ranges as our mother mountains, the Nazca plate is our grandmother, because it is the one that created our proud mountains from the Andean Venezuela to the heights of Chile and Argentina. The Andes ranges are nothing more than a  land upheaval caused by the intrusion of the plate below South America. According to the geologist, Nazca is the fasting moving plate over the earth. It will make that Asia is every second nearer to South America, while the Andes will continue with minor, middle and big earthquakes and volcanoes for the next million centuries.

It is possible an earthquake like the Chile in Colombia

You do not need to be a geologist to conclude that Colombia has the same probabilities of an earthquake of the same proportions of the one in Chile. Furthermore, we have several volcanoes ready to vomit giant rocks over many towns.

After the earthquake that destroyed the Chilean city of Concepción, thousands of miles at the south of our country, the seismographs registered five minor earthquakes in our territory!

1. Tuesday, March 1, 3.2 m.m.s. earthquake in Chocó, the state of the northern Pacific coast of Colombia.
2. Wednesday, March 2, 05:02 am, earthquake in Bucaramanga and other in the north of the Valle del Cauca state: two in a single day.
3. Thursday, March 3, again the northern Pacific of Colombia trembled, Chocó in the morning. The same day a second one of 4.6 m.m.s. in the Western of Colombia, again, at the side of the Nazca plate.

History of earthquakes in Colombia

The report of the 1785 earthquake in Bogotá, published in Gazeta de Santa Fe, the first printed news in Colombia.

The territory that was going to be Colombia, registered earthquakes and volcano activity since ancient times. According with Fray Pedro Simón in his chronicles of the 17th century, the city of Cajicá was destroyed by an earthquake in 1617. Many others have been well recorded in the archives of the Colombian history and even the intention of predict them, like the one of Rev. Francisco Margallo who said in a poem of him:

´El 31 de agosto de un año que no diré

Sucesivos terremotos destruirán a Santa Fé´

The 31rst of August of a year that I will not say, succeeding earthquakes will destroy Santa Fe.

If the earthquake of Chile was amazingly long (one minute and half), we Colombians should not forget that Bogotá suffered an earthquake of four minutes! It was on July 12, 1785 at o7:45:00. The colonial buildings of the time were destroyed, like the Convent of Saint Francis, the Convent of Santo Domingo, the Guadalupe church and the Cathedral, at the time the biggest buildings of the Spaniard colonial capital that was known as Santa Fe de Bogotá. The earthquake not only created a conscience that new buildings should be done thinking in this kind of phenomenon, but it originated the first Colombian news ever published, where there was a report over the earthquake. For this reason I can say that the 1785 earthquake of old Santa Fé was the father of journalism in Colombia!

The testimonies of that earthquake are kept in the General Archives of the Nation, with several events and the historical Aviso del terremoto.

El Pais newspaper of Cali registered the earthquake of Popayán.

The first earthquake of the Republican era was at 11:15 on May 18, 1875 and it had a magnitude of 7.3 m.m.s. The epicenter of the earthquake was the city of Cúcuta and the region was completely destroyed. The earthquake was registered in Bogotá and Caracas as well. The number of deathly victims is not sure, but some historians argued that it could be near 1,000 deaths. In a century that Colombia was almost as it is Haiti today, the earthquake of Cúcuta was a real tragedy.

On March 31, 1983, the city of Popayán, southwest of Colombia, was completely destroyed by an earthquake and 200 persons were reported death. The destruction of the ancient Spaniard city was a real sadness, because it kept buildings as old as the 17th century. Popayán is one of the oldest European settlement in the Americas. The support of Spain especially helped in the reconstruction of beautiful Popayán that is very near to the Puracé Volcano.

The other tragic earthquake in Colombia to be remembered was the 1999 of Armenia on Monday, January 25 at 13:19 the first of 14, with an intensity of 6.4 m.m.s. About 1000 persons lost their lives in the city. At 17:40:18 was other with 5.4 m.m.s. On January 29 at 23:33 one with 4.2 m.m.s and two days later, on 31, an earthquake of 3.5 m.m.s.

Is Colombia well prepared to face an earthquake?

It is possible to predict a typhoon and a volcano activity, but not an earthquake. However, it is possible to detect the regions at permanent risk. The first prevention comes from our planners. How are we building in our modern cities? It is not only for huge cities like Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla, Cartagena and Cúcuta. It is also for middle and small towns wide the country. Especially housing should be well prepared to face a strong movement of the unpredictable earth.

The second is the aptitude of the people. The role of the media, the educative national formation, the schools, the families, should talk very often that we live in a country that is prone to earthquakes and that they can be destructive. Most of our Colombian cities and regions are in a risky zone for earthquakes. If it is easy for official planners to determine the type of material in construction, private initiatives should be controlled before the people start any work to make their houses. Any constructor should do a study of the soil and the possibility of an earthquake.

The other question has to see with the rescuers and equipments for a possible natural tragedy in our cities and regions. What we have, how is the conditions of the roads, where is the nearest airport, how we can give shelter to thousands of families in an eventual earthquake, how can we prevent looting. how can we guarantee that the telecommunications will continue working to keep us in contact with the rest of the world, how the people will react in the middle of such natural phenomena (panic must be also educated, especially with children.)

A country like Colombia should be of course an expert in earthquakes, but reality is far from it. According to Jorge Salazar, a civil engineer, in an interview by LaPatria.com, the 95 % of the buildings in our Colombian cities are not following the security to prevent any earthquake. He said that any building constructed against earthquake, do not collapse and this fact, evidently reduces the number of deathly victims.

Every family should be prepared as well: things that can be prom to fall, should be moved to a safer place. At the same time, every house should keep well its kit of emergency with basic medicines for first aid, water, lights, radio, documents of identity and property of the house. It is not a joke… the next big earthquake could be in Colombia.

Santiago.

Gonzalo says that minors earthquakes have been reported in Santiago since the big one of last Saturday that destroyed Concepción in the first hours of the day. The Chilean rescue team that returned from Haiti a week ago, now has to see for its own country. It moved to Concepción and are drilling in destroyed buildings looking for survivors. According to rescuers, there are signs of life among the ruins.

The firefighters found a cell phone from the ruins of a building. There was a message sent at 03:50: estamos bien como te encuentras saludos (We are well, how are you, greetings.)

An Ecuadorian survivor says to the Media that he could leave the ruins 30 minutes after the earthquake with his family in Alex Tapia.

In the Dichato coast waves of 20 meters high crushed the city.

In the Robinson Crusoe Island it is said that a girl helped her grandfather to go up the bell tower minutes after the earthquake. They could prevent the population of the island to reach higher positions. The city was destroyed by the tsunami, but the people was saved.

In Puerto Ordaz, Concepción, people are looting markets and getting even appliances from shops, becoming a social chaos. However, the military and the police reacted strongly to prevent more looting, after an emergency decree was established by the municipality. The army has the order to react even by shooting to those who persevere in their intention of theft among the drama of destruction.  The government declared a curfew.

The time is revealing new dramas, heroic actions like the one of Robinson Crusoe Island and the picture of a great devastation, while many slept on the streets among insecurity. The earth continues moving with less intensity.

Report by Gonzalo Torres from Santiago; photo from Rodrigo Carlos Eugenio from Concepción (picture in Commons Wikimedia).

The epicenter of the earthquake was in the Bio Bio Region, near Concepción City, 500 kilometers at the south of Santiago. It created the red alert of Tsunami in all the countries surrounding the Pacific Ocean basin in the Americas, Oceania and Asia.

Concepción, Curicó and Talca were the most affected cities. The destruction of roads was especially serious in Concepción where an old bridge collapsed, fortunately it was out of service.

A Tsunami affected Talcahuano and Iloca that came 15 minutes after the earthquake. In the Juan Fernández Archipelago, the Tsunami killed five persons and 11 persons are lost, according to reports.

In Santiago several buildings collapsed. A friend of this blog who lives at the south of the capital, reported by Chat that electricity, Internet and telephones were suspended for some minutes and there were a lot damage.

The danger of a Tsunami in the Pacific Ocean continue as a probability, but most countries like Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and United States did suspend the alert.

The Arturo Merino Benítez International Airport of Santiago suffered serious damage and flights to Chile have been detoured to Argentina, Peru and Antofagasta (Chile).

The Metro of Santiago suspended operations and it was said officially that it would operate again this Sunday. The Pan-American Road suffered damage between Santiago and Temuco.

In other countries

The Chilean earthquake was felt in Argentina as well, especially in the provinces of San Juan and Mendoza and with less power in Rio Negro, Chubut, Córdoba and La Pampa.

Alert of Tsunami was given in Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, United States, New Zeland, Polynesia, Hawaii, Philippines and Japan.

Colombians in Chile

There are about 10 thousand Colombians in Chile, according to report given by the Chilean ambassador in Bogotá to Caracol Radio. Several Chileans who were in Colombia enjoying the last days of summer of the southern country, could not travel immediately to Santiago due to the suspension of flights.

The Colombian government and the firefighters department of Bogotá offer immediate disposition to the Embassy of Chile to support the brother country in its emergency.

There are not reports on Colombian victims so far. In Conception there are 300 Colombians living, most of them working as dentists, engineers and mechanics.

Viña del Mar Festival close down is suspended

The famous Hispanic Festival of Viña del Mar where international figures of the Spanish music participated at the end of the Austral summer, suspended its traditional close down due to the earthquake.

This Saturday was programmed the presentation of artists like Los Fabulosos Cadillac of Argentina, Beto Ceuvas of Chile and Los Jaivas. This Sunday was scheduled the show of Spaniard singer Raphael and the Guatemalan Ricardo Arjona, all of them international figures in the Spanish artist world.

The Colombian singer Fanny Lú became an eventual reporter in her Twitter following the events in Chile, especially to inform about the situation of her artist colleges. All the artists were evacuated from the Sheraton at the moment of the earthquake.

Are you in Chile, Japan or any region affected by the earthquake and tsunami? Write your comments and descriptions. Help people through information.

The 2009 ranking of the best schools of economy in the region measured three dimensions: actions in the support of social labor, the size in the number of graduates and the professional success reached by its more outstanding past pupils.

IAE-Universidad Austral of Buenos Aires, the best high ranking school of economy in Latin America, according with AméricaEconomía Magazine. Photo official site of the University.

IAE of the Austral University of Argentina got the highest score among 48 Latin American schools of economy. The same school got the third place in the best networking management and the most outstanding past pupils.

The third more powerful school of economy in networking management is PUC from Chile. The fourth one is again an Argentinian of the University of San Andrés in Buenos Aires. The other sixth ones are:

• University of Torcuato Di Tella, Argentina, 5th.
• FEA/FIA,  University of São Paulo, 6th.
• ESAN of Lima, 7th.
• University Adolfo Ibáñez of Santiago de Chile, 8th.
• FGV-EAESP of São Paulo, 9th.
• ITAM of City of Mexico, 10th.

To decide how important and powerful is a school of economy, the scholars see not only how successful are their past pupils, but also how the center get to keep them in touch to promote investigation and social actions.

IAE-Management and Business School, Universidad Austral

The Austral University of the Pilar district in Buenos Aires, is also considered the biggest community of students in the Latin America and it includes persons from more than 25 nations. It has had international creditation from the European Quality Improvement System of the European Union, the Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business of the United States and the Association of MBA of Grand Britain. The Financial Times, the Business Week, AméricaEconomía and Apertura publications have considered IAE as one of the highest ranking schools of economy of the region.

According to El Mercurio, the national tourism going outside Chile decreased 15 percent this Austral summer of vacations in comparison with numbers of 2008. But the tourist agencies just changed destinies to keep the pockets of the Chilean travelers with near and cheaper places.

The world financial crisis could not stop the will of the Chilean travelers to visit other countries. Just it changed their places from far and expensive Europe or US to the same South America in countries like Colombia, Peru and Brazil.

The commercial manager of Travel Company, Fernando Catalán, said to El Mercurio, that the agencies decreased the costs of the tours. It was also possible due to the decrease of the prizes of oil.

By the other hand, Colombia became a safer place, although its political conflict still on the move. The country promotes itself as a resume of several tourist proposals that attract Chileans: It has Caribbean cities and islands like Cartagena de Indias or the San Andrés Archipelago, natural beaches in its Pacific coasts, modern cities like Bogotá, Medellín, Cali and Bucaramanga, Andean views with natural parks and traditional towns and huge regions of jungle, although these last ones are not recommended for foreign visitors.

To do that, the government announced this year the investment of more funds per 700 million dollars to face the financial crisis.

Minister Sergio Bitar said in an interview with AméricaEconomía, that it intends to increase infrastructure and national development in order to become a developed country.

At the end of the Bachelet’s government, investment in public work would reach the historical number of 3 thousand million dollars, according to Min. Bitar. President Bachelet said few weeks ago that will implement a special plan to increase employment and economical growing.

The Minister suggested that the results will be seen in 2010, although the budget for this year includes some works already.

Chile has put 2020 as the goal for its ambitions. In fact, it is considered one of the most stable economies of Latin America, the most peaceful nation of the Western Hemisphere and a solid democracy. “We are discussing which country we want and reaching conclusions about the design of that country,” said Bitar to AméricaEconomía, the Latin American economical magazine.

He said also that Chile is the first Latin American country with the most developed infrastructure. Investment in infrastructure is the one that goes together with education, the most important investment in a country, said the Minister. Infrastructure and education are the bases of a nation.

Asked by AméricaEconomía for those big infrastructures, Min Bitar speaks about big roads like the one that would connect the south with the north of Chile in more than 3,800 kilometers (2,361 miles) and other roads that would benefit the tourist industry. Other projects have to see with airports and ports and a connection with Brazil through Bolivia.

Tax accounts will be deteriorated in most of the countries due to the slow of growing, the fall in the incomes of raw material and the increase in the costs of financing.

The global crisis will finish to weaken the Latin American currencies and slow its economics. In this way, the economical organization predicted that the GDP for Latin America in 2009 will be the half of what it was in 2008 stated in 4.8%. Therefore, the 2009 GDP could reach only 2.1%, according to the experts.

It said also that the most vulnerable countries to the prize of commodities will be Argentina and Venezuela, two countries that have implemented economical policies that have demotivated the foreign investment in the past years. Panama and Peru will have the highest growing in 2009.

The following is a list of numbers in what will be the GND for the biggest Latin American economies for 2009 according to Standard & Poor’s (S&P):

1. Mexico: It will have a reduction in its GND of 0,5%.
2. Brazil will grow 2,5%.
3. Argentina: 2,5%.
4. Chile: 2%.
5. Colombia: 3%.
6. Venezuela: 3,3%.
7. Perú: 6%.
8. Panamá: 5,5%,.

The extraction of gold and silver will be the main production of a mine that is said to be one of the biggest of the planet, but disagreements among Argentina and Chile are delaying the beggining of the proyects that would benefit their economies. The problem is that Chile proposed to pay the 80% of the taxes because the projects are more located in its territory, while Argentinia says that the taxes should be paid in equal proportions.

While the two goverments get an agreement in the issue, the original schedule is delayed and it gets more expensive due to the rise in the prizes of inputs like steel, engineering outsourcing and electricity. If the original cost of the project was USD 1,500 million, today it is reaching USD 2,400 million, according with AméricaEconomía.