Colombia Passport

The Constitutional Court is near to give its verdict over the possibility of another reform to open the way for a third reelection of President Uribe. I can guess that it will be possible and I can guess that President Uribe will run again for a third period at the Nariño House. An unpopular opposition, a very fanatic Uribista party, the obsession of President Hugo Chávez for Colombia and the fear for the return of the chaotic situation of Colombia before 2002, will play a very important part in the decision of most Colombians.

Although the democratic security policy of Uribe is too much difference from the social governance of Sergio Fajardo, former major of Medellín, I fear that after Uribe the situation of Colombia will become something similar to what is happening with the Medellín under major Alonso Salazar.

During the Fajardo government of the second largest Colombian city, there were two factors to get that space of peace: the commitment of the national government to pacify Medellín and the compromises of Fajardo with the most marginalized and violent sectors of the metropolis.

I remember also the critics of certain individuals over the policies of Fajardo. Those who sit down on the steps of the stadium to shout how the soccer players should do on the field. Then it came Salazar and he became a more classic Colombian politic: a leader closed in his office, while the snake of violence woke up again to increase the number of killings.

The problem is not Uribe by himself as many want to show. I would point out an opposition that spent its time running after him as barking dogs. An opposition without a real political program to follow and to convince the Colombians.

It is true and very much true that during the two periods of president Uribe there were problems of human rights, poverty, unemployment, violence and many more social evils. But it is also true that those problems have been long time before Uribe and, I can be sure, that they will stay for a long time after Uribe.

It is also true that out of any ideological position, the government of Uribe has changed Colombia. It is logic: he changed paradigms and an old tradition of politics in the nation. When I left Colombia in 1999, the guerrillas were at the outskirts of cities like Bogotá, Medellín and Cali. If you do not believe it, you can look for newspapers´ articles of the time. But I was a witness of it. Now we have a government with more presence over the country. Even if you can point out several lacks, it is not the government of Laureno Gómez who established a dictatorship, not the government of Misael Pastrana who was imposed over the wishes of the Colombians, not the government of Julio César Turbay who closed the eyes to the strengthening of mafias, not the government of Belisario Betancourt Cuartas who was so weak that the M-19 took the Palace of Justice only few meters away from the presidential house…

Chávez and Colombia

The other element that would play its good role in this elections is President Hugo Chávez Frías of Venezuela. Evidently Chávez is an interventionist. Evidently, he is afraid of a Colombia leaded by Uribe, a threat for his communist revolution.

It is logic that Colombia is weary of communist guerrillas for already half a century. It is logic that most Colombians dream that the guerrilla nightmare will end. The presence of some former guerrilla leaders in the Latin American politics is a good evidence for Colombians that it is possible to fight for social ideals through political campaigns rather than shooting from the forest. At the same time, the Colombian guerrilla is using terrorist tactics to fight, while supporting their cause by drug smuggling. It can be easily demonstrated.

It is logic then that a communist discourse like the one of Chávez is not welcome in modern Colombia. Maybe foreign socialists could not understand it very well and they could see it as a discrimination, but you do not live in Colombia where thousands of men are on the hands of the guerrillas for more than ten years (even before Uribe came to the presidency.)  If Chávez is afraid of an anticommunist Colombia, Colombians are afraid of Chávez, who is seen by Colombians as friendly to the guerrillas.

I am agree that we Colombians need to appreciate socialism. But to do so, we have to be in peace first – like a country like Chile got its peace. Then, Colombians will be able to elect a socialist or not socialist president without any fear or bad remembrance of the past.

Nothing with Uribistas

The other factor is the Uribista Party and its fanatic vision of the President. Of course, its power allows it to access to the Colombian public opinion. The unpopularity of the opposition in modern Colombia gave it the space to perform as the leader of opinion. Their followers have the face of high and middle Colombian class, far from the social needs of the nation, ignorant of the loneliness of the countryside, the drama of the displaced by violence, the crimes against unionists and communitarian leaders. You cannot see the ordinary people in a so blue party that regards President Uribe as a kind of Pharaoh. As the pharaohs of ancient Egypt, they will be buried inside the tomb of their king at their due time. In conclusion, there is not a single leader coming from the Uribismo who can convince me.

A third period will be not easy for Uribe. The rather distant US President Obama is not too near to Colombia like it was the Bush administration. Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia, Brazil and Argentina will continue their pressure over Colombia in their intention to impose themselves as leaders of the region. The fissures of the democratic security must be attended. The consequences of the 2008 financial crisis will increase social expenditure and unemployment. The violent groups will try to gain power, while the opposition will change strategy to weak the popularity of the president.

I would prefer a new face, but I do not see such face. Maybe Uribe could avoid the emergency of a leader able to convince the Colombians. Maybe Fajardo could be a good option. Let us see what is going to happen this coming Monday.